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Abstract

ABSTRACT
Hydrogen and fuel cells are a radical innovation with great potential, but they are
currently surrounded by numerous uncertainties. It is argued that demand and
technological uncertainties are particularly important. An economic analysis is
performed for a hydrogen refuelling station to understand the way uncertainties
work. Even though the investment has a negative NPV today, it can be justified by
the option value given to the owner for the future. In addition, the profitability of
the station depends heavily on the demand; the evolution of which is still
unpredictable unless public authorities decide to create a stable early demand.

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