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Abstract

After reviewing and analyzing OPEC's behaviour in the past two decades, this paper employs a simulation model to explore plausible paths for oil prices. OPEC's members are subdivided into analytically convenient maximizing groups. Ail price paths eventually reach the backstop level. An important insight from the model simulations is that the price development preferred by the"cartel core, " the countries with the most abundant oil reserves, is akin to that which would ensue in a competitive market setting.

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