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Abstract

In this article, two MARKAL models of Québec and Ontario are used to simulate several scenarios of CO2 emission reductions, under two alternative economic growth rates assumptions in each province. The results show that emission reductions of up to 35% in Ontario and up to 50% in Québec are possible, at costs which vary considerably with the scenario and the economic growth rate. The article includes a detailed discussion of the conservation, fuel and technological changes that are needed to respond efficiently to the CO, constraints. Large amounts of conservation are selected by the models, as well as a marked switch toward nuclear electricity in Ontario and toward hydro electricity in Québec. Several variant scenarios explore the feasibility and cost of a restriction of nuclear in Ontario and of hydro in Québec. Further runs of the models also reveal large benefits for the two provinces to cooperate in managing efficiently Québec's hydro electricity and emission rights.

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