Date of Award
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Economics / Economic Policy
Professor B. G. Spencer
Professor F. T. Denton
Professor S. Mestelman
An integrated macroeconometric and input-output model of Nigeria is formulated and tested in this thesis. The linkage between final demand and value added by sector is achieved through a 1973 input-output table of Nigeria. The input-output table is combined with national accounts, budgeting, monetary and balance of payments accounts using annual observations over the period 1960-1983. The residuals in value added equations based on fixed input-output coefficients are modeled with the explicit inclusion of capital stock to capture supply constraints in a developing economy.
The complete model is made up of 5 input-output equations, 29 stochastic equations and 38 identities and definitions. The predictive ability of the model is evaluated based on dynamic historical simulation results. According to the tests the model performs reasonably well for most variables.
It is intended that the integrated model should help us to understand the structure and important features of the Nigerian economy and be of assistance in the analysis of macroeconomic and sectoral policy initiatives, forecasting and development planning. The integration also facilitates a number of analytical possibilities since the macro-model of final demand is complemented by the inter-sector supply flows and the input-output model by the stochastic macroeconometric relationships.
The model is used to evaluate growth prospects for the Nigerian economy up to 2000 and the sensitivity of the growth paths to changes in the world price of oil. These simulation experiments have policy implications for the government. Oil price may increase in the future but such increase will be temporary. In the medium-term it will be prudent for the federal government to establish a stabilization fund that would reduce the impact of the cyclical patterns of foreign exchange earnings from oil exports.
Given the uncertainties in the world oil market and Nigeria's vulnerability to what happens, it is essential to promote the non-oil sectors of the economy in the long-term. Questions concerning the ways in which the structure of the economy could be altered, or which sectors of the economy should be emphasised in order to facilitate sustained economic growth could be analysed with the model. Simulation results from the model suggest that agricultural sector promotion strategy would reduce dependence on oil and would constitute a source of long-term economic development. This involves a shift in production and consumption activities toward agriculture. The inter-sectoral allocation of investments is also essential for the growth strategy for Nigeria. A higher priority for investments in agriculture stimulates long-term increases in sectoral output and overall economic growth.
Oshikoya, Waheed Temitope, "An Integrated Macroeconometric and Input-Output Model of Nigeria" (1989). Open Access Dissertations and Theses. Paper 1945.