Date of Award
Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)
Economics / Economic Policy
Frank T. Denton
The purpose of this study is to explore the influence on urban employment patterns of changes in demand for commodities by foreign and domestic consumers. Foreign induced changes in commodity demand are reflected in this study by assumed changes in exports of selected commodity groups, ranging from relatively unprocessed groups such as grain, to sophisticated groups such as electrical products and chemicals. The domestic sources of commodity demand change considered in this study are various components of current expenditure by the federal government - on health education and defence programs, as well as on total government expenditure. The influence of these sources of final demand change is traced to the employed populations of Montreal and Toronto metropolitan areas, and the component districts of these urban areas. An important concern is with whether or not some shocks tend to alleviate or accentuate existing unemployment rate disparities between the central city and fringe of Montreal and Toronto.
A national input-output system, together with an appended employment allocation matrix is utilized to estimate the urban employment impacts. The area impacts differ because, on the one hand, employment in some industries is affected more than in others, depending on the particular source of final demand change assumed, and on the other hand the, proportion of an area's employed population affiliated with a given industry tends to differ from that of other areas.
Before implementing the model the latter proposition, concerning inter-area differences in industrial affiliation pattern of the employed, is supported by theoretical reasoning and empirical analysis. Theoretically, different industries have different locational preferences in an urban area, as a result of factors related to technology, cost of production, and market access. Combined with the theoretical assumption concerning minimization of cost and/or distance of travel to work, area differences in the proportion of workers affiliated with a given industry is implied. This hypothesis is not rejected by analysis of variance experiments based on the pattern of male and female employed populations residing in districts of Montreal and Toronto. Adjusted census statistics on the employed population are used in these experiments, the adjustment being required in order to make the urban portion of the model consistent with the 1961 input-output system.
Implementation of the model reveals that the metropolitan areas of Montreal and Toronto are influenced to similar degrees by the assumed changes in various components of final demand, but that certain sub-metro areas were affected more than others. There is a tendency for suburban and wealthier areas to be affected more than central and less affluent districts though there are important exceptions. Some components of final demand change tend to accentuate existing intra-urban unemployment disparities.
It is finally shown how the area impact disaggregated by subpopulation can be used to identify structural factors responsible for inter-area differences in the total impact. The disaggregated impacts also reveal qualitative, or distributional aspects of the aggregate impacts and thus may be of interest to urban planners. It is possible, for example, to check if female or male employees, affiliated with a lower paying industry group, and resident in a relatively poor district of the city, is influenced more than average by a particular type of final demand change.
The limitations and possible extensions are finally reviewed. One limitation involves the assumption that given the industry, subpopulations of the employed are discharged at similar rates when there is a fall in product demand. The theory treating labour as a quasifixed factor implies that the lower grades of labour would be discharged at higher rates than the higher grades. Any bias due to the omission of this effect would reinforce the results related to intra-urban unemployment rate disparities, however. Future research suggested by this study include incorporation of the discriminatory discharge effect into the model and further disaggregation of the work force of industries, according to occupation or income group.
Jones, Frank Stephen, "Macro-Economic Influences on Urban Employment Patterns An Input-Output Analysis" (1975). Open Access Dissertations and Theses. Paper 3088.