Population Forecasting for the Town of Ancaster

Abstract

<p> This paper applies a cohort survival model to an age-and sex-disagqregated 1985 'base' population of Ancaster. Using a fortran programme, low, high, and 'most probable' projections were made for a 1986 to 2001 time horizon. The migration component was found to be the single most important projection variable. Consequently, only migration was varied between the three sets of projections. In analyzing migration for Ancaster, we identified a persistent trend in net migration over the 1971 to 1985 period. This finding allowed us to apply the 1985 male and female age profiles of net migration to the in-migrants. Thus, this study more accurately quantified net Migration than previous studies. </p>